Andy Murray moved up to 6th in the world rankings this week, in reality based on this year’s results he is top 5 stuff, probably top 4 behind the big 3 Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic.
In fact I would argue that if you discount the clay court season he himself would make that top 3 slot and even be 2nd best in the world, on last two months form this is definitely the case, having only beaten by one player, Rafael Nadal, since the French Open.
And on hard courts, dare I say, may even be the best – If the court in Beijing plays as fast as it did in Cincinnati, then Murray will be in his Element, if it is slower then he may struggle a little more, especially on his serve.
Andy Murray may well be in the form of his life, but the bookmakers don’t share my view and he is still a long way behind the big 3 in their eyes. With Nadal as favourite at odds less than 3/1 and Federer and Djokovic not far behind, Murray’s odds of 11/1 at Betfair is easily my best bet. I’ll be backing Murray to win and I’ll also be backing Nadal not to win as I simply cannot see him winning next week.
Outside of those 4, you can get big odds on any other player and with the Olympics often throwing up strange results anyone may be a decent bet. Ivo Karlovic at 94/1 on Betfair is my outsider pick.
| Player | Average Odds – All bookmakers | Betfair Odds | ||
| Traditional Odds | Decimal Odds | Traditional Odds | Decimal Odds | |
| Rafael Nadal | 89/50 | 2.78 | 47/25 | 2.88 |
| Roger Federer | 189/100 | 2.89 | 47/20 | 3.35 |
| Novak Djokovic | 67/20 | 4.35 | 49/10 | 5.9 |
| Andy Murray | 49/5 | 10.8 | 11/1 | 12 |
| Nikolay Davydenko | 184/5 | 37.8 | 49/1 | 50 |
| David Ferrer | 443/10 | 45.3 | 89/1 | 90 |
| David Nalbandian | 50/1 | 51 | 99/1 | 100 |
| James Blake | 69/1 | 70 | 169/1 | 170 |
| Tomas Berdych | 91/1 | 92 | 269/1 | 270 |
| Ivo Karlovic | 78/1 | 79 | 94/1 | 95 |
| Fernando Gonzalez | 72/1 | 73 | 109/1 | 110 |
| Ernests Gulbis | 88/1 | 89 | 179/1 | 180 |
| Lleyton Hewitt | 99/1 | 100 | 199/1 | 200 |
| Marcos Baghdatis | 108/1 | 109 | 299/1 | 300 |
| Mario Ancic | 104/1 | 105 | 299/1 | 300 |
| Juan Martin Del Potro | 93/1 | 94 | Make Offer | Make Offer |
| Marat Safin | 100/1 | 101 | Make Offer | Make Offer |
| Tommy Haas | 90/1 | 91 | Make Offer | Make Offer |
| Stanislas Wawrinka | 84/1 | 85 | 189/1 | 190 |
| Mikhail Youzhny | 107/1 | 108 | 229/1 | 230 |
| Dmitry Tursunov | 127/1 | 128 | 239/1 | 240 |
| Radek Stepanek | 109/1 | 110 | 259/1 | 260 |
| Gilles Simon | 123/1 | 124 | 299/1 | 300 |
| Philipp Kohlschreiber | 140/1 | 141 | 359/1 | 360 |
| Ivan Ljubicic | 140/1 | 141 | 189/1 | 190 |
| Nicolas Kiefer | 119/1 | 120 | 209/1 | 210 |
| Gael Monfils | 150/1 | 151 | 299/1 | 300 |
| Marin Cilic | 109/1 | 110 | 299/1 | 300 |
| Janko Tipsarevic | 143/1 | 144 | 309/1 | 310 |
| Robin Soderling | 129/1 | 130 | 329/1 | 330 |
| Tommy Robredo | 151/1 | 152 | 329/1 | 330 |
| Guillermo Canas | 150/1 | 151 | 359/1 | 360 |
| Paul Henri Mathieu | 158/1 | 159 | 419/1 | 420 |
| Igor Andreev | 172/1 | 173 | 429/1 | 430 |
| Mardy Fish | 125/1 | 126 | Make Offer | Make Offer |
| Feliciano Lopez | 138/1 | 139 | Make Offer | Make Offer |
| Nicolas Almagro | 135/1 | 136 | 229/1 | 230 |
| Juan Monaco | 167/1 | 168 | 239/1 | 240 |
| Andreas Seppi | 188/1 | 189 | 279/1 | 280 |
| Nicolas Lapentti | 186/1 | 187 | 279/1 | 280 |
| Robby Ginepri | 177/1 | 178 | 359/1 | 360 |
| Simone Bolelli | 168/1 | 169 | 379/1 | 380 |
| Sam Querrey | 181/1 | 182 | 409/1 | 410 |
| Jarkko Nieminen | 222/1 | 223 | 429/1 | 430 |
| Michael Llodra | 169/1 | 170 | Make Offer | Make Offer |
| A Calleri | 133/1 | 134 | Make Offer | Make Offer |
| Potito Starace | 232/1 | 233 | 309/1 | 310 |
| Hyung Taik Lee | 222/1 | 223 | 359/1 | 360 |
| Kei Nishikori | 202/1 | 203 | 359/1 | 360 |
| Nicolas Massu | 252/1 | 253 | 359/1 | 360 |
| Steve Darcis | 265/1 | 266 | 409/1 | 410 |
| Rainer Schuettler | 225/1 | 226 | Make Offer | Make Offer |
| J Melzer | 169/1 | 170 | Make Offer | Make Offer |
| Thomaz Bellucci | 262/1 | 263 | 359/1 | 360 |
| Thomas Johansson | 272/1 | 273 | 359/1 | 360 |
| Victor Hanescu | 296/1 | 297 | 379/1 | 380 |
| Olivier Rochus | 297/1 | 298 | 439/1 | 440 |
| Jonas Bjorkman | 327/1 | 328 | 459/1 | 460 |
| Dudi Sela | 450/1 | 451 | 999/1 | 1000 |
| Denis Gremelmayr | 462/1 | 463 | 999/1 | 1000 |
| C Guccione | 250/1 | 251 | Make Offer | Make Offer |
| Max Mirnyi | 315/1 | 316 | 359/1 | 360 |
| Dominik Hrbaty | 302/1 | 303 | 409/1 | 410 |
| Ivo Minar | 332/1 | 333 | 409/1 | 410 |
| Marcos Daniel | 372/1 | 373 | 459/1 | 460 |
| Kevin Anderson | 365/1 | 366 | 459/1 | 460 |
| Peng Sun | 465/1 | 466 | 459/1 | 460 |
| J Vanek | 450/1 | 451 | Make Offer | Make Offer |
| Y-H Lu | 338/1 | 339 | Make Offer | Make Offer |
| Jo Wilfried Tsonga | 169/1 | 170 | 169/1 | 170 |
| Yen Hsun Lu | 349/1 | 350 | 349/1 | 350 |
| Juan Ignacio Chela | 999/1 | 1000 | 999/1 | 1000 |
| Robin Haase | 999/1 | 1000 | 999/1 | 1000 |
| Stefan Koubek | 999/1 | 1000 | 999/1 | 1000 |
Many will say I’m mad to announce Murray as even close to the top 3, but let’s look at the facts, Federer has struggled all year and when Murray did play him, the Scot won comfortably. The loss was blamed on an “illness”, but that excuse wears a little thin when you consider more recent Federer results. Federer has as yet not won a major title this year and while he has been in the final of two grand slams (Wimbledon and Rolland Garros) and two masters finals (Monte Carlo, Hamburg – both clay court events) he has not managed a win. More importantly on hard courts his form has been lousy his best result this year is semi finals in Indian Wells back in March and that’s it. It would look as if too much effort went into winning the French Open and beat Nadal on Clay.
The other top 3 player that Murray could be considered ahead of at this moment is Novak Djokovic, having been owned by the Serb for their time on the ATP tour – Murray shattered those demons in the last two weeks beating Djokovic in straight sets twice. Since the end of clay court season Djokovic’s form has dipped, last week it picked up and he managed to record a famous victory against the soon to be world’s number 1, Rafael Nadal, ending his 32 game winning streak. That’s though until he met Murray
For me, the only player who can beat Murray on current form on a hard court is Rafael Nadal and the reason for that is more mental than tennis ability, fitness or current form. Having lost all 5 of their previous matches against the Spaniard, Murray has a difficult fight within himself to believe that he can beat Nadal. Nadal is without question the best in the world at the moment though I would go as far to say that Murray should beat Nadal on hard courts, especially faster ones, but the longer the losing run goes against Nadal, the harder it will get for the young Scot to win.
The draw for the Beijing Olympics will determine much, just as it did in Cincinnati, If Murray is drawn in Nadal’s half and they meet in the quarter’s or semi’s, then Murray will hit a major road block and need to do something he has never done before beat the Spaniard. If they are in opposite halves, I don’t think Nadal will reach the final, on hard courts any of the top 50 can beat Nadal, that’s if they believe they can win.