Andy Murray vs Rafael Nadal Wimbledon QF Preview

Murray Beats Nadal – View the Murray v Nadal 2008 US Open match Report

Tomorrow Andy Murray will step onto centre court again for the fifth time this Wimbledon to take part in his first ever grand slam quarter final. Murray will face his biggest ever Wimbledon challenger, Rafael Nadal, the world Number 2 and perhaps soon to be world number 1.

After the heroics of Andy Murray yesterday in the 4th round round the odds on him winning his quarter final against Nadal are looking slim. The Spaniard is the overwhelming favorite to win match with all of the bookmakers. The best odds you will get for Nadal winning is around 1/5 and Murray is seen as the 5/1 won shot. Though if you place your bet at Betfair you will get slightly better odds and a free £25 bet.

Rafael Nadal Andy Murray
Traditional Odds Decimal Odds Traditional Odds Decimal Odds
Betfair 3/14 1.21 47/10 5.7
Bet365 1/6 1.17 4/1 5
Sporting Bet 9/50 1.18 15/4 4.8
Totesport 1/6 1.17 7/2 4.5
betfred 1/6 1.17 7/2 4.5
Blue Square 1/6 1.17 7/2 4.5
Paddy Power 1/5 1.2 7/2 4.5
Coral 1/6 1.17 7/2 4.5
William Hill 1/6 1.17 7/2 4.5
Stan James 1/5 1.2 10/3 4.3
Ladbrokes 1/5 1.2 10/3 4.3

The history of these two players suggests that the bookmakers have it right, the two have met on 3 previous occasions and Nadal has won all 3 matches. Their first match together was an epic 5 setter in the 4th round of the Australian open in 2007. A 19 year old Murray was beaten more from fatigue than Nadal when he twice lost a 1 set lead going down 6-7(3) 6-4 4-6 6-3 6-1.

Since then they have met twice on the regular ATP tour, in 2007 they met at the Madrid Masters, Murray lost a tight 2 set match 7-6(5) 6-4, this match played out in front of a very partisan Spanish crowd, the roles will be very much reversed tomorrow.

Their final and last meeting was just 2 months ago at the  Hamburg Masters, this time the match took place on Clay and Murray never really had a chance of beating the clay court specialist. Murray would lose the match easily 6-3 6-2.

Will the crowd play a factor?

The bookmakers will look at the stats, Nadal has beaten Murray 3 times out of 3, Nadal is a grand slam winner, a two time Wimbledon finalist and he has just won his first grass court tournament at Queens Club. Throw into this that Murray expended much more energy reaching the quarter final than Nadal and you couldn’t argue with Nadal’s odds. But this will be one of the biggest matches that Wimbledon has ever seen, this quarter final match may even top all of Tim Henman’s matches. The centre court crowd could be all it takes to sway this match in Murray’s favour. 

Ignoring the ridiculous comments of some of the broadsheets, for example this story printed prior to the Gasquet match, it suggests that Andy Murray will never win over the British public. This particular writer must have been slightly embarrassed this morning to find that over 10 million people watched on TV and “Murray Mound” was visibly the busiest anyone has ever seen it, this is not forgetting the atmosphere in a packed centre court and the end of the match coming at 9.30pm. I think Murray has already been accepted by the British public.

The Murray Mania goes further though, tickets are being sold at over £2000 for the Murray vs Nadal match, the highest price seen for last years Nadal Federer final was half this. What would happen if the unthinkable came true and Murray made it to the semi’s or finals?

For that to happen he needs to find a way to beat Rafael Nadal, his first serve will be critical, if serves near his best with a high percentage of first serves, then look out Britain because Murray could win this match. If he serves as he did in the first 2 sets against Gasquet, then Murray can forget his chances of upsetting the bookmakers.

Come on Andy!

Rafael Nadal Andy Murray
ATP Ranking 2 11
DOB 03/06/1986 15/05/1987
Birthplace Manacor, Mallorca Dunblane, Scotland
Residence Manacor, Mallorca Dunblane, Scotland
Height 6’1” (185 cm) 6’3” (190 cm)
Weight 188 lbs (85 kg) 175 lbs (79 kg)
Plays Left-handed Right-handed
Turned Pro 2001 2005
YTD Win Loss 53 Wins 7 Losses 27 Wins 10 Losses
YTD Titles 5 2
Career Titles 28 5
Prize Money $17,987,823 $2,407,154
Wimbledon 1st Round Andreas Beck (GER)
6-4 6-4 7-6
Fabrice Santoro (FRA)
6-3 6-4 7-6
Wimbledon 2nd round Ernests Gulbis (LAT)
5-7 6-2 7-6 6-3
Xavier Malisse (BEL)
6-4 6-2 6-2
Wimbledon 3rd Round [27] Nicolas Kiefer (GER)
7-6 6-2 6-3
Tommy Haas (GER)
6-4 6-7 6-3 6-2
Wimbledon 4th Round [17] Mikhail Youzhny (RUS)
6-3 6-3 6-1
[8] Ricahrd Gasquet (FRA)
5-7 3-6 7-6 6-2 6-4